On Sunday, October 27th, Japan held its 50th Lower House, triggered by PM Ishiba’s decision to dissolve the House shortly after assuming office on October 1st. The election was the first nationwide vote since the revelation of a political slush fund scandal in 2023, making it a crucial test of public opinion and trust in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Japan’s House of Representatives has 465 seats, of which 289 members were elected from single-member districts (SMDs) and 176 from proportional representation (PR). In SMDs, the country is divided into 289 districts, each electing one candidate. The candidate with the highest number of votes in each district is elected. For PR, the country is divided into 11 regional blocks, and voters select a party rather than an individual candidate. Each party is allocated seats in proportion to the number of votes it receives, and candidates on the party’s list are elected accordingly.
While political reform and the role of money in Japan’s politics dominate discussions among all parties, notable differences persist in their approaches to key areas such as the economy, national security, social welfare, and energy policy. Each party presents distinct strategies and priorities that reflect their ideological underpinnings and vision for Japan’s future. Major parties include:
- Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) election manifesto builds on the Kishida administration’s economic policies, focusing on inflation control, wage increases, and boosting investment in future-ready industries through initiatives like GX and DX. On security, the LDP supports amending 9 to formalize the Self-Defense Forces, responding to regional threats from China and Russia and prioritizing the Japan-U.S. alliance, fundamentally enhancing Japan’s defence capabilities. In energy, the party seeks to balance carbon neutrality by 2050 with energy security, advocating for efficiency, renewable energy expansion, and strategic nuclear power use to meet decarbonization goals.
- Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP): The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) outlines revising tax structures and exemptions to increase the progressivity of inheritance and gift taxes while adjusting the cap on social insurance contributions to ensure fair contributions from the wealthy. They advocate adjusting the Bank of Japan’s inflation target from 2% to “above 0%” and jointly setting “real wage growth” as a key target with the government. In terms of security, the CDP aims to renegotiate the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and also opposes constitutional revision and suggests that while strengthening defence is necessary, costs should be minimized and any tax hikes for defence spending should be avoided. On energy policy, the party envisions a carbon-neutral Japan by mid-century, reducing reliance on both fossil fuels and nuclear energy as early as possible within this timeframe.
- Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai): Ishin no Kai presents a diverse array of policies, including tax reductions (consumption tax from 10% to 8%), alleviation of social insurance burden on the working-age population, universal access to free education, support for same-sex marriage and separate spousal surnames, advancement and implementation of next-generation nuclear energy, bolstering Japan’s military capabilities, and revisions to the Article 0 and U.S.-Japan SOFA.
- Komeito: Komeito focuses on direct financial assistance for low-income households and pensioners affected by rising costs, increasing the minimum wage to 1,500 yen within five years, surpassing inflation. While supporting the principles of Article 9, Komeito emphasizes democratic control of the Self-Defense Forces and seeks to explore their constitutional positioning. Unlike the LDP, Komeito advocates for reducing nuclear reliance and prioritizing renewable energy in Japan’s energy mix.
- Democratic Party for the People (DPFP): The Kokumin Democratic Party proposes to temporarily reduce the consumption tax rate to 5% until real wages increase and advocates investment tax incentives in growth sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and AI. It emphasizes enhancing the constitutional authority of basic principles while discussing emergency powers for the executive branch to ensure legislative functionality during crises. The party also supports replacing and expanding nuclear power plants to secure low-cost and stable energy, along with improving thermal power generation efficiency as part of a realistic carbon neutrality strategy.
- Japanese Communist Party (JCP): The JCP wants to eliminate the consumption tax, sharply increase corporate taxation, repeal the 2015 national security laws, halt work to strengthen cooperation with the US, pursue an Asia-centered foreign policy by strengthening ties with ASEAN countries, eliminate nuclear energy, and oppose the revision of the constitution.
Ballot Box: Voting Experience in Tokyo’s 2nd District
On October 24, I cast my vote during the early voting period (October 16th – October 26th) and am pleased to present my firsthand experience as a voter in Tokyo’s 2nd district.
Five candidates competed for the House of Representatives seat in Tokyo’s 2nd district: Mari Hosono (JCP), Yoshinori Mogami (Sansei), Kiichiro Hatoyama (DPFP), Mitsuaki Imamura (Ishin), and Kiyoto Tsuji (LDP).
[Picture 1: Campaign Poster Boards]
On election day, I selected one candidate from these five in the SMD election while casting my vote for a party in the PR election. Additionally, a national review of Supreme Court justices took place, allowing citizens to express their opinions on the judges’ performance.
[Picture 2: Polling station]
Young People’s Voice
In a recent conversation with my friends about the election, it became clear that young voters are primarily focused on economic issues, particularly tax allocation and the desire for tax reductions. Many of them are seeking more robust security policies in response to rising regional threats while simultaneously embracing liberal perspectives on social issues, such as education, gender equality, and LGBTQ rights. Their voices reflect a desire for a balanced approach that addresses both security needs and social justice, showcasing a nuanced understanding of the contemporary political landscape.
One of my friends identifies as quite liberal regarding gender equality, same-sex marriage, and LGBTQ rights, yet he also holds a realist perspective, notably supporting revisions to Article 9 of the Constitution and the continued operation of nuclear power plants. This complex political stance led him to vote for a candidate from the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) in Tokyo’s 1st district. He expressed growing distrust of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), particularly due to their positions on same-sex marriage and optional family names. Additionally, he ruled out the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) due to concerns over their economic policies and governance capabilities, although he finds that Ishin aligns closely with his views, despite its internal conflicts.
Another friend expressed a keen interest in youth support, free education, and the recognition of optional family names and same-sex marriage, which ultimately led her to vote for a candidate from Ishin in Tokyo’s 1st district.
Election Result: The Ruling Bloc loses Lower House Majority
The results of the House of Representatives election were confirmed early on the 28th: the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 191 seats, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) gained 148 seats, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai) obtained 38 seats, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) got 28 seats, Komeito won 24 seats, Reiwa Shinsengumi acquired 9 seats, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) received 8 seats, the Sanseito gained 3 seats, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) got 1 seat, other parties accounted for 3 seats, and 12 were independent.
The LDP-Komeito coalition saw a reduction in seats, dropping from 279 before the election to 215, falling 18 seats below the majority threshold of 233 in the 465-seat assembly. Despite the LDP’s effort to improve the party’s image, many voters felt that the LDP’s actions towards the flush fund scandal were insufficient, especially when it was reported that the LDP headquarters provided 20 million yen to party branches led by candidates who were not officially endorsed by the party. Even with additional endorsements for non-certified candidates, the ruling coalition could not reach a majority, marking the first time since the regime change in 2009 that the LDP and Komeito have fallen below a majority.
A special session of the National Diet will be held within 30 days of the election day to conduct a vote for the Prime Minister. The ruling coalition (LDP and Komeito) requires an additional 18 seats to retain its government while the CDP needs additional 85 seats to secure the nomination for Prime Minister. To maintain the government, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed his intention to seek cooperation with the DPFP. The LDP may incorporate household support measures, such as reductions in electricity and gas costs—key priorities for the DPFP—into its economic policies and supplementary budget proposal.
The support from the DPFP and Ishin no Kai will significantly influence the outcome of the Prime Minister nomination election. An LDP-Komeito remains the most likely option, whether they stay as a minority government or obtain one partner in an enlarged coalition.
[Picture 3: Party Positioning]
This report is written by Mei Terasawa, research assistant at the Centre for Japanese Research